As Lake Chad Shrinks Rapidly, Space Technology And Drones Are Needed To fight Africa’s Droughts
February 26th, 2017
Via Quartz, a look at how emerging technological opportunities for improving environmental monitoring and the need to act in time could help manage crisis like Lake Chad:
Nigerian and Chadian officials are seeking $50 billion for a major water diversion project to replenish Lake Chad. This is nearly twice the annual GDP of Uganda. But it’s understandable, the lake has shrunk by nearly 90% between 1963 and today.
The plan involves diverting water from the Oubangi River in Central Africa to replenish the lake. It is estimated that the feasibility study alone would cost nearly $15 million. The proposed project would also provide irrigation, energy, and transportation infrastructure aimed at stimulating economic development.
With the election of Chadian foreign minister Moussa Faki Mahamat as chairperson of the African Union Commission, the project and the larger security concerns will remain a priority for the organization as well as for diplomatic interactions with other regions of the world.
Lake Chad offers a grim cautionary tale of how lessons from chronic drought might inform our anticipation of the potential impact of climate change in many parts of Africa. It shows the close interconnections between ecological change, security, and development. But it also points to emerging technological opportunities for improving environmental monitoring and the need to act in time.
The lake straddles the borders of Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria. This is the same region that is ravaged by the excesses of Boko Haram. It provides water for nearly 30 million people in the semi-arid Sahel region. Its overall basin is the largest closed drainage basin in the world covering 2.5 million square km, or about 8% of the African continent.
The prolonged Sahel drought from the late 1960s to the early 1980s reduced water flow into the lake. The drought, combined with population growth, pushed people in the catchment areas to expand irrigation. This further undercut the flow of water into the lake.
In 1972, the lake split into two, and was separated by a 40 km barrier. The southern lake is shallower and therefore more susceptible to evaporation. To restore the lake level, enough water would need to flow into the southern lake to overflow the barrier and replenish the northern lake. But this has been compromised by drought and irrigation. Simulation studies have shown that the failure of Lake Chad to merge back into a single water body following wetter periods in the 1990s resulted from irrigation. Without irrigation the lake would have probably merged in 1999, and again in 2004.
Lake Victoria’s challenge
The case of Lake Chad is too dramatic to contemplate. But other major water bodies such as Lake Victoria are vulnerable to similar, if not equivalent, impacts. Nearly 80% of the replenishment of Lake Victoria comes from rainfall, which feeds thousands of streams. The lake itself is relatively shallow, averaging 40 meters deep. A prolonged drought could affect large parts of the shoreline, destroying fish breeding areas and agriculture. This would put the lives of millions of people at risk.
Consequences of a receding shoreline due to prolonged drought is unknown. But it would be foolhardy to wait and see. Some people would turn to irrigation, especially on the Kenyan side of the lake, which has the largest number of rivers flowing into it. This would reduce the inflow of water into the lake. Considerable water and land use conflicts would ensue, making them national security challenges. The ramifications would extend to East Africa’s relations with the Nile basin countries, especially Egypt.
Little is known of the consequences of even modest receding of the shoreline due to prolonged drought. But it would be foolhardy to wait and see. The first step in addressing the problem is to conduct real time monitoring of ecological trends in the region. One of the most effective tools available today is satellite technology.
African countries are only starting to explore the use of space technology. Climate change and regional ecological disruptions are already rendering historical maps and geographical data useless. Traditional knowledge is no longer an effective guide for environmental management in light of climate change. Policymakers need a fresh start using modern technologies.
Part of the slow adoption of satellite technology is the perception that space technology is too expensive. The popular and false image of the technology is derived from the last century, when the space programs were too expensive for emerging countries.
This perception has persisted despite dramatically falling costs of developing such programs. African countries can now establish viable space programs with about $300 million. The costs could be shared by neighboring countries. The East African Community, for example, could have one regional space program instead five separate ones.
More countries around the world are now focusing on small satellites, which are easier to build and launch in modular constellations. This is also making it possible for students in South Africa to participate in the design of small satellites and the accompanying scientific experiments.
The other major concern is that the few space initiatives that exist in Africa focus more on turnkey projects. Instead, they should stress building the requisite human capacity needed to rise up the space ladder. The best place to build such capacity is in universities, not in secretive departments in government ministries.
The lifespan of a satellite is about 10 years. Countries that do not invest in continuous training quickly see their ground facilities rendered obsolete by technological change. A space program only functions effectively when it is supported by a strong human resource foundation on the ground.
The future of environmental monitoring is being transformed by the increased use emerging technologies such as civilian drones. Climate change offers Africa yet another reason to leverage the drones to complement satellite technology. Increasing the installation of weather stations across Africa would provide additional support for environmental monitoring. According to Gro Intelligence, the land mass of sub-Saharan Africa is 35 times that of Texas. Yet the two have nearly the same number of weather stations.
The long-term contribution of such efforts lies in building strong institutions of higher learning attached to major infrastructure projects. Such universities can then work with networks of technical institutes and high schools to broaden the base for competence in environmental management.
Investments in human resource development, especially in the engineering fields, will help African countries reduce the maintenance costs of infrastructure projects. Given the magnitude of the financial outlays needed for climate change abatement projects, the continent needs low-cost ways of providing evidence-based advice for the design, implementation and maintenance of infrastructure investments. Ways to do this include expanding the engineering divisions of African scientific academies as well as creating dedicated academies of engineering.
The specter of climate change will continue to haunt Africa. But it also offers new opportunities for tapping into emerging technologies for environmental monitoring to address improve development planning and identify emerging security challenges. Such anticipatory work might give the continent the knowledge needed to respond in time to ecological disasters.
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Read More »The Digital Ocean: Our Next Information Frontier
February 17th, 2017
Via Scientific American, interesting commentary on the need for an information superhighway of the seas:
When the term Information Highway was coined, little did the majority of the world realize the impact this concept and the resulting Internet Superhighway would have on humanity. In 1994, MIT described the concept this way: “The information superhighway brings together millions of individuals who could exchange information with one another.” Spring forward to today. You can simply “Google” anything and receive an instantaneous response to gain immediate knowledge. This is our expectation—immediate access to data anywhere in the world, day or night.
In reality, instant access to data is only true for less than one quarter of our planet. For the remaining three quarters, the ocean, there is a huge information infrastructure gap, with limited to no real time access to data.
Why is this? On land, we have sensors everywhere—weather sensors to provide neighborhood weather reports, traffic sensors to report on road conditions, and the list goes on. There are sensors throughout your home for better home management and security—controlled right from your smartphone. In manufacturing plants, sensors are prevalent to optimize the supply chain and increase productivity. Many more examples exist in healthcare, entertainment, military, oil & gas, and in thousands of other industries. The Digital Revolution has certainly arrived, yet not to our oceans.
Why does this matter? Who needs instant access to information in the middle of the ocean? The answer is we all do. The world’s economies are tightly linked to the oceans. Over 90 percent of global trade is carried by ships with goods worth over $4 trillion. Fishery net export revenues are over $42B, and offshore energy exploration exceeds $394B. To help solve the global issues of dwindling fisheries/seafood supplies, energy shortages, and climate change we must depend on advancements in technologies, and the ability to understand the ocean, which will require an exponential growth and deployment of sensors and a global communications infrastructure to help monitor and manage the ocean. These economic forces, coupled to the sustainable management of our ocean environment, are key drivers of the Blue Economy. The common denominator for this growth is the need for pervasive real time data to understand what’s going on in our ocean and in turn, our planet
Despite a growing awareness of our economic dependence on our Oceans, the majority of the world does not realize its importance or our dependence for life’s basic needs (oxygen, food, weather). Below are statistics that underscore this importance and co-dependence:
- The U.S. GDP is heavily influenced by U.S. Maritime transportation with over 95 percent of U.S. foreign trade, nearly 3 million jobs (1 in 50), dependent on maritime commerce (Source: CIT Maritime Fast Facts in Five, 2016).
- Four fifths of the world’s merchandise trade is seaborne.
- 99 percent of all international data (calls, text messages, financial transactions) travel through undersea cables.
- In Europe alone, the gross estimated incremental value of the Blue Economy is $500 Billion per year.
- Fish provide more than 3.1 billion people with almost 20 percent of their intake of animal protein.
A maritime digital revolution
Today, our expectation is for instant communication—immediate response to any question. Just ask Google Home or Amazon Echo. We enjoy access to real time information across land, air and space; however, this is not true for our ocean.
This is the glaring gap. Seventy one percent of our planet is ocean. Of this 2/3 of our world, we only know five percent about what exists. Why? Unlike on land, air and space, there are relatively few sensors or devices to collect data below the surface and even fewer ways to communicate. The issue is the World lacks a data collection and communications infrastructure to provide real time communications throughout our ocean.
Without the ability to have pervasive information and information exchange, I submit we will not be able to tackle some of the most challenging issues before us. In 2015, more than 190 world leaders committed to 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to help us all end extreme poverty, fight inequality & injustice, and fix climate change. Of these, number 14 is to conserve and sustainably use the ocean. This is a fundamental requirement, and, if not addressed, will have severe consequences. Just think of the ramifications to the 2.6 billion people who today rely on seafood as their main source of protein?
A vision for a Digital Ocean is emerging. It can be defined as a diverse, networked array of platforms and sensors that enable connectivity across the ocean, to the air above and through the vast ocean depths, providing instant access to ocean information. This vision will take time and collaboration across industry, government, NGOs and Academia. It requires unmanned and manned systems working together to collect exchange and communicate data.
We need to start today to overcome the challenge of networking the ocean. The benefits of such a network are invaluable. Imagine if there were grids of sensors spanning our ocean, connected and networked, that could provide instant information on impending tsunamis, or on water quality to detect oil leaks and possibly prevent a major catastrophe. Think about the intelligence we would gain by using these sensors to conduct long term monitoring of the world’s fish population and how this could help feed those 2.6 billion people. The insights we’d gain from this data would transform business, advance scientific discovery and help safeguard our ocean.
Overcoming business and technology barriers.
Before the Digital Ocean becomes a reality there are obstacles we have to overcome:
- Lack of a pervasive ocean data collection and communications infrastructure. Fundamentally, we need to create the information highway for the ocean. A connected network of systems, manned and unmanned, that can collect data anywhere in the ocean, anytime, and do so sustainably. Today this is not possible. Enabling on-demand, real time ocean information is the goal for the Digital Ocean.
- Sparse number of sensors throughout the ocean. Ironically, there are more sensors in Space than our ocean. Why? The ocean is an extremely dangerous and costly place to operate, especially in the unpredictable deep ocean. The costs, both in dollars and risks to human life, severely limit ocean observation and monitoring. With sensors to collect real time data on climate change, weather, seismic activity, ocean currents, fish migration or other biological or environmental conditions, we can learn what’s really happening beneath the surface. We’ll have the data to measure and then better manage our ocean. This ability to easily and economically deploy data collection sensors throughout our ocean is fundamental to the future of the ocean economy and ocean preservation.
- Renewable energy to fuel long duration systems. For ocean systems, energy is the first constraint that limits how independent, how autonomous, a robot can be. With vast coverage areas and no mid ocean gas stations or electric hook-ups, the need for systems that are not dependent on refueling and those operating on renewable energy sources is critical to long duration operations.
- Extreme reliability for ocean operations. As noted, the ocean is unpredictable and harsh. In addition to extreme wave, wind, current, temperature changes and mid ocean hurricanes, salt-water corrosion is another unique challenge that must be overcome. Every component and every aspect of the integrated system requires extreme reliability design and testing. It requires the same or greater testing that is done for space flights, as for both, repair calls are slow and costly.
- Reducing the cost and risk of ocean operations. The current acquisition, maintenance and operational costs for ocean operations are prohibitive for most businesses. With the advent of unmanned systems, the risks and high costs associated with manned ocean operations (i.e. ships) are greatly reduced. We need to let the unmanned systems tackle the dull, dangerous and dirty jobs to safeguard human life and improve overall operational efficiency.
The ocean is data rich, yet without an easy, reliable, and cost effective communications infrastructure it remains untapped. The good news is we’re not starting from scratch. Commercially available technologies, both manned and unmanned, are available and working today, but more development is needed. Creating the Digital Ocean will require an entire ecosystem of partners working together toward a common objective – connectivity anywhere on or in the planet’s oceans.
Starting now, starting together
Whether it’s international trade, undersea communications, weather, food sources or jobs, our economic future depends on sustaining a healthy global ocean. To do so, we need to reliably collect and communicate information from all parts of the ocean. This requires a renewed dedication to network and communications innovation that fueled the World Wide Web. We can start by collaborating on the Digital Ocean.
The Digital Ocean is a long-term endeavor that is not in place today, yet has seeds around the world. It requires more than technology and building out the fundamental infrastructure. It will require thoughtful and collaborative work on international maritime law and regulations, interoperability and data standards, and security. The good news is that we have the experts today. Our next step is to adopt a shared vision with clear goals and then get started.
The time to get started is now. Our oceans are ailing and need our attention. Without a healthy ocean we cannot realize a healthy ocean economy. This is why I ask you to start thinking now about the role your organization can play in the Digital Ocean. What can we collectively do to overcome the challenges? Looking ahead the opportunities are vast and the stakes are high. Join me to create the Digital Ocean—the next global communications frontier that will serve the Ocean of 2030 and our future generations.
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